Bottom Line Up Front: If we were truly concerned about preventing mass shootings based on demographic data, the focus would be on men, not transgender individuals. White men are far and away the most likely to commit gun violence.
Executive Summary
The recent Trump DOJ proposal to ban transgender Americans from owning firearms following the Minneapolis Catholic school shooting reveals a fundamental truth: gun rights arguments in America have never been about the Second Amendment. They’ve always been about privilege and control. The data clearly shows who has historically been targeted for gun restrictions and who hasn’t, exposing the selective application of constitutional rights based on demographics and power structures.
Current Context: The Minneapolis Shooting Response
The Incident: On August 27, 2025, a 23-year-old transgender woman, Robin Westman, killed two children and injured 21 others at Annunciation Catholic Church in Minneapolis.
The Proposed Response: Senior Justice Department officials are weighing proposals to limit transgender people’s right to possess firearms, according to two officials familiar with the internal discussions. The DOJ is considering whether it can use its rulemaking authority to follow on to Trump’s determination to bar military service by transgender people and declare that people who are transgender are mentally ill and can lose their Second Amendment rights to possess firearms.
The Hypocrisy: This represents a dramatic departure from traditional Republican opposition to any gun restrictions, revealing that Second Amendment “principles” are selectively applied.
Understanding Mass Shooting Data: The Definition Problem
Before examining the demographics of mass shootings, it’s crucial to understand that mass shooting statistics vary dramatically depending on how they’re defined. This inconsistency itself reveals something important about how data can be manipulated to support different narratives.
The Range of “Official” Numbers
| Source | Time Period | Total Count | Definition Used | Key Exclusions |
| Mother Jones/Statista | 1982-2024 | 151 mass shootings | 3+ killed in public places | Gang violence, domestic violence, robberies |
| Ammo.com Research | 1966-2024 | 195 mass shootings | 4+ killed (targeted attacks) | Gang violence, family violence |
| Gun Violence Archive | 2018-2025 | 4,134 mass shootings | 4+ people shot (killed or wounded) | Very few exclusions |
Why These Numbers Matter
The dramatic variation – from 151 to 4,134 – isn’t just academic. It demonstrates how easily statistics can be cherry-picked to support predetermined conclusions. Yet regardless of which database or definition you use, the demographic patterns remain remarkably consistent: the vast majority of mass shooters are men, and specifically white men.
This data inconsistency becomes particularly relevant when examining policy responses. If lawmakers were genuinely concerned about preventing mass shootings based on statistical risk, they would:
- Standardize data collection across agencies and organizations
- Focus interventions on the highest-risk demographic (men, particularly white men)
- Address root causes rather than targeting statistically insignificant populations
Instead, as we’ll see, the response to recent incidents follows a familiar pattern of targeting marginalized groups while ignoring the primary demographic responsible for mass violence.
Demographic Data on Mass Shootings: The Numbers Don’t Support the Panic
Overall Mass Shooting Demographics (1966-2024)
Links below. Important Caveats. Different definitions: Each source may define “mass shooting” differently (some use 3+ victims, others 4+, some exclude gang violence, etc.) Time periods vary: Statista covers 1982-2024, while Ammo.com covers 1966-2024 Methodology differences: Some databases are more comprehensive than others
- Ammo.com Research: “Mass Shooters by Race: Demographics of Assailants 1966-2024” https://ammo.com/research/mass-shootings-by-shooters-race
- Statista data (1982-2024): https://www.statista.com/statistics/476456/mass-shootings-in-the-us-by-shooter-s-race/
- The Violence Project database: https://www.theviolenceproject.org/key-findings/
By Race (195 targeted mass shootings, 1966-2024):
- White Americans: 53% (103 incidents)
- Black Americans: 21% (41 incidents)
- Latino Americans: 9% (18 incidents)
- Asian Americans: 7% (14 incidents)
- Middle Eastern Americans: 4% (8 incidents)
- Native Americans: 1% (2 incidents)
By Gender:
- Male shooters: 145 out of 151 mass shootings since 1982 (96%)
- According to the National Institute of Justice/The Violence project study, the demographics of shooters were 97.7% male
Transgender Mass Shooters: The Statistical Reality
The Facts:
- A 2023 report by the U.S. Secret Service National Threat Association Center found that from 2016 to 2020, 96% of shooters were men, 3% women, and 2% transgender
- From January 2013 to the present, of the more than 5,700 mass shootings in America (defined as four or more victims shot and killed), five shooters were confirmed as transgender
- Based on data from the Gun Violence Archive, and using the GVA definition, the U.S. recorded 4,134 mass shootings since January 1, 2018. The three confirmed incidents involving transgender shooters account for around 0.07 percent of these, or around 1 in 1,378. This is far below transgender people’s roughly 1 percent share of the population age 13 or older.
Context: Transgender people are less than 2% of the US population but four times as likely to be victims of crime.
The Real Pattern: Male Violence
If we were truly concerned about preventing mass shootings based on demographic data, the focus would be on men, not transgender individuals. White men, who make up 31% of the U.S. population, have committed 51% (101) of all mass shootings since 1966, with a rate of 0.09 per 100,000 people.
Historical Pattern: Gun Control as a Tool of Oppression
The Mulford Act: When Republicans Embraced Gun Control
The Context: The Mulford Act was a 1967 California bill that prohibited public carrying of loaded firearms without a permit. Named after Republican assemblyman Don Mulford and signed into law by governor of California Ronald Reagan, the bill was crafted with the goal of disarming members of the Black Panther Party.
Bipartisan and NRA Support: Both Republicans and Democrats in California supported increased gun control, as did the National Rifle Association of America. The bill was passed with the full backing of Republican governor Ronald Reagan and the National Rifle Association.
Reagan’s Justification: Governor Ronald Reagan, who was coincidentally present on the Capitol lawn when the protesters arrived, later commented that he saw “no reason why on the street today a citizen should be carrying loaded weapons” and that guns were a “ridiculous way to solve problems that have to be solved among people of good will”.
The Real Target: According to UCLA law professor and gun rights historian Adam Winkler, what turned committed conservatives like Mulford and Reagan into pioneers of gun control legislation was Black people.
The Broader Historical Pattern
Colonial Era: The founding generation that wrote the Second Amendment had racist gun laws, including prohibitions on the possession or carrying of firearms by Black people, whether free or enslaved.
Post-Civil War: After the Civil War, the Black Codes enacted in the South made it a crime for a Black person to have a gun.
Jim Crow Era: Even facially neutral laws were used in a racially discriminatory fashion; Martin Luther King Jr. was denied a concealed carry permit even after his house was firebombed.
Modern Era: The gun control advocate and journalist Robert Sherrill frankly admitted that the Gun Control Act of 1968 was “passed not to control guns but to control blacks”.
The Pattern of Selective Rights
Who Gets Gun Rights Restricted:
- Enslaved and Free Black Americans (Colonial era through Civil War)
- Black Americans (Post-Civil War through Civil Rights era)
- Immigrants and the Poor (Early 20th century)
- Black Panthers and Civil Rights Activists (1960s)
- Transgender Americans (2025 proposal)
Who Doesn’t:
- White men (despite being 96% of mass shooters)
- Conservative militia groups
- Right-wing extremists
Economic and Class Dimensions
The obvious effect of gun bans and prohibitions is to deny law-abiding citizens access to firearms for the defense of themselves and their families. That effect is doubly discriminatory, because the poor, especially the black poor, are the primary victims of crime and often lack the political power to command as much police protection as richer neighborhoods.
Since the courts have consistently ruled that the police have no duty to protect the individual citizen, and that there is, as the Supreme Court put it, “no constitutional right to be protected by the state against being murdered by criminals or madmen,” citizens, regrettably, are put in the position of having to defend themselves.
Contemporary Implications
The Minneapolis Response in Context
The speed and enthusiasm with which conservatives are willing to restrict gun rights for transgender Americans—while maintaining absolute opposition to any restrictions following mass shootings by other demographics—reveals the true nature of gun rights discourse in America.
Consider:
- No similar proposals to restrict gun ownership for white men following school shootings
- No proposals to restrict gun ownership for domestic abusers (despite being a major risk factor)
- No proposals to restrict gun ownership based on social media posts expressing violent ideologies
The Real Goal: Control, Not Safety
The Panthers’ platform was radical, revolutionary and responsive: it sought to defend the community from violence, expose the systematic distributions of harm, and create a world where all people would be free from the threat of violence. This is why they were targeted—not because of public safety concerns, but because they challenged existing power structures.
Data Sources and Methodology
This analysis draws from multiple authoritative sources:
- Gun Violence Archive (comprehensive mass shooting database)
- The Violence Project (academic research on mass shootings)
- Mother Jones mass shooting database
- Historical court records and legislative documents
- FBI and DOJ statistics
- Academic research from Harvard Law Review, Duke Center for Firearms Law
Conclusion
The pattern is clear and consistent across centuries: gun control in America has been selectively applied to maintain existing power structures and control marginalized populations. The current proposal to restrict transgender gun ownership follows this exact template—using a rare incident involving a member of a marginalized group to justify sweeping restrictions that would never be applied to the demographic group (white men) that commits the vast majority of mass shootings.
This isn’t about the Second Amendment, public safety, or constitutional principles. It’s about who gets to exercise power and who gets controlled. The data proves it, and the history confirms it.
Research Methodology Section
Data Sources and Methodology
Research Process and Collaboration
This analysis was developed through a collaborative process between human researcher, Angela Fisher, and AI assistant (Claude, Anthropic) to ensure comprehensive data gathering and analytical rigor. The methodology included:
1. Initial Research Phase
- Searched project knowledge base for relevant information (none found related to this topic)
- Conducted web searches using multiple search terms and phrases
- Fetched primary source documents when available
- Cross-referenced statistics across multiple databases
2. Data Verification Process
- Identified and flagged contested statistics for human verification
- Acknowledged methodological differences between data sources
- Highlighted definitional inconsistencies in mass shooting databases
- Recommended direct source verification for all key claims
3. Source Selection Criteria
- Prioritized government databases and academic research
- Used established news organizations (Newsweek, CNN, Washington Post) for recent developments
- Included historical academic sources from law reviews and research institutions
- Cross-referenced statistical claims across multiple independent sources
4. Limitations and Transparency
- Acknowledged when sources used different methodologies or time periods
- Flagged potentially contested statistics for independent verification
- Noted when AI assistant could not access primary source websites directly
- Recommended human researcher verify all claims through primary sources
Primary Data Sources
This analysis draws from multiple authoritative sources:
- Gun Violence Archive (comprehensive mass shooting database)
- The Violence Project (academic research on mass shootings)
- Mother Jones mass shooting database
- Historical court records and legislative documents
- FBI and DOJ statistics
- Academic research from Harvard Law Review, Duke Center for Firearms Law
Quality Assurance Notes
- All statistical claims were cross-referenced with multiple sources where possible
- Historical claims were verified through academic and legal sources
- Recent news developments were confirmed through multiple mainstream outlets
- The human researcher was advised to independently verify all sources and statistics
- Methodological differences between databases were explicitly acknowledged and explained
Collaborative Research Notes
During the research process, the AI assistant:
- Conducted 15+ web searches across different topics and source types
- Attempted to access primary sources (Gun Violence Archive, government databases)
- Flagged inconsistencies in statistical reporting across sources
- Questioned the reliability of specific claims and recommended verification
- Provided multiple perspectives on contested data points
- Recommended against using potentially unreliable statistics without proper context
The human researcher:
- Directed the research focus and validated findings
- Made final decisions on source reliability and inclusion
- Verified contested statistics through independent research
- Ensured all claims met journalistic standards for a sensitive topic
Sources
- TIME Magazine: Trump DOJ Weighs Ban on Trans People Owning Guns
https://time.com/7314814/trump-gun-rights-ownership-ban-trans-minneapolis-shooting-doj-proposal/ - CNN: Trump DOJ is looking at ways to ban transgender Americans from owning guns
https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/04/politics/transgender-firearms-justice-department-second-amendment - The Washington Post: DOJ discusses a potential ban on transgender people owning firearms
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/09/04/guns-transgender-justice-trump-bondi-shootings/ - Ammo.com Research: Mass Shooters by Race: Demographics of Assailants 1966-2024
https://ammo.com/research/mass-shootings-by-shooters-race - Statista: Mass shootings in the U.S.: shooters by gender, as of September 2024
https://www.statista.com/statistics/476445/mass-shootings-in-the-us-by-shooter-s-gender/ - Statista: Mass shootings by shooter’s race in the U.S. 2024
https://www.statista.com/statistics/476456/mass-shootings-in-the-us-by-shooter-s-race/ - Wikipedia: Mass shootings in the United States
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_shootings_in_the_United_States - NewsBreak: Trump DOJ Reportedly Looking to Ban Trans Americans From Owning Guns
https://www.newsbreak.com/mediaite-520570/4214787344437-trump-doj-reportedly-looking-to-ban-trans-americans-from-owning-guns - CGTN America: What mass shooters have in common, and what they don’t
https://america.cgtn.com/2023/03/29/what-mass-shooters-have-in-common-and-what-they-dont - Wikipedia: Mulford Act
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mulford_Act - Snopes: Did the NRA Support a 1967 ‘Open Carry’ Ban in California?
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/nra-california-open-carry-ban/ - History.com: The NRA Supported Gun Control When the Black Panthers Had the Weapons
https://www.history.com/articles/black-panthers-gun-control-nra-support-mulford-act - California Local: California Gun Control: How Ronald Reagan and the Black Panthers Started a Movement
https://californialocal.com/localnews/statewide/ca/article/show/4412-california-gun-control-reagan-black-panthers/ - Harvard Law Review: Racist Gun Laws and the Second Amendment
https://harvardlawreview.org/forum/vol-135/racist-gun-laws-and-the-second-amendment/ - The Heritage Foundation: The Racist Roots of Gun Control
https://www.heritage.org/the-essential-second-amendment/the-racist-roots-gun-control - GunCite: Are Gun Control Laws Discriminatory?
https://guncite.com/journals/gun_control_markdis.html - Office of Justice Programs: Gun Control Would Not Reduce Crime Against the Poor and Minorities
https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/gun-control-would-not-reduce-crime-against-poor-and-minorities-gun - Duke Center for Firearms Law: What the Panthers Meant By Self-Defense: Race, Violence, and Gun Control
https://firearmslaw.duke.edu/2022/08/what-the-panthers-meant-by-self-defense-race-violence-and-gun-control - Duke Center for Firearms Law: The Racial Justice Gambit
https://firearmslaw.duke.edu/2022/01/the-racial-justice-gambit - Gun Violence Archive
https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/ - The Violence Project: Key Findings
https://www.theviolenceproject.org/key-findings/ - Snopes: Mass shooters are not disproportionately transgender, contrary to claims
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/transgender-mass-shootings/ - Medium: A Racialized History of Gun Control: How Race Has Shaped Firearm Legislation in the United States
https://medium.com/@jonathanbaltzly/a-racialized-history-of-gun-control-how-race-has-shaped-firearm-legislation-in-the-united-states-af473adeef78 - Community Commons: The Racist Origins of U.S. Gun Control
https://www.communitycommons.org/entities/0e9f60e4-f540-4ff7-9f73-206e61070375 - libcom.org: The racist roots of gun control – Clayton E. Cramer
https://libcom.org/article/racist-roots-gun-control-clayton-e-cramer
