🟦 Pre-Raid Baseline: What Was on the Table
Timeline: August 2025 (Pre-ICE Raid) | Status: Fully Committed
$350 billion in Korean investment secured through July trade negotiations. Projects proceeding on schedule with Korean technical teams deploying. MASGA shipbuilding program launching successfully with congressional support.
$350B
Total Investment Secured
275,000
Jobs Committed
On Schedule
All Projects
100%
Investor Confidence
Original Investment Commitments by Sector
Original Investment Commitments by Country
🟢 Best Case: Rapid Diplomatic Resolution
Timeline: 3-6 months | Probability: 25%
Quick visa framework agreement, new Korean worker visa category created, projects resume with minimal delays. Strong bilateral cooperation prevents future incidents.
$340B
Investment Retained
240,000
Jobs Preserved
6 months
Average Delay
35,000
Jobs at Risk vs Baseline
Investment Impact by Sector
Investment Impact by Country
🟡 Most Probable: Extended Negotiations
Timeline: 12-18 months | Probability: 55%
Lengthy diplomatic negotiations, some project delays and cancellations, gradual visa improvements. Other countries adopt wait-and-see approach with reduced near-term investments.
$280B
Investment Retained
185,000
Jobs Remaining
18 months
Average Delay
90,000
Jobs Lost vs Baseline
Investment Impact by Sector
Investment Impact by Country
🔴 Worst Case: Investment Collapse
Timeline: 2+ years | Probability: 20%
Continued visa restrictions, major project cancellations, investments diverted to other countries. Widespread loss of confidence among foreign investors globally.
$180B
Investment Retained
125,000
Jobs Remaining
3+ years
Average Delay
150,000
Jobs Lost vs Baseline