The Downgrade Cascade: Forced Displacement
"Families don't fail — the system extracts wealth at every stage until nothing is left."
The Pattern of Systematic Displacement
- Families don't fail - the system is designed to extract maximum wealth
- At each stage, costs rise faster than wages can keep pace
- Corporate owners profit at every level of the cascade
- The final stage: criminalization of poverty itself
📊 Methodology & Sources
Monthly Housing Costs: Based on 2024-2025 national median data from Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies and NPR reporting. Apartment ($2,000), Cheaper Apartment ($1,500), Mobile Home lot rent ($850 based on national median + utilities), Vehicle ($300 for parking/fuel/insurance), Street ($0).
Quality of Life Index: Composite metric (0-100 scale) weighing: access to utilities (25%), security/safety (25%), climate control (20%), space adequacy (15%), social stability (15%). Apartment=80, Cheaper Apt=60, Mobile Home=40, Vehicle=20, Street=5.
Cost-Burdened Renters (50%): Harvard JCHS 2024 report showing renters spending >30% of income on housing.
Mobile Home Rent Increases (45%): NPR reporting on median lot rent increases 2014-2024.
Vehicle Homelessness (17% growth): Transfers Magazine UCLA study, 2019-2022 data.
Anti-Vehicle Laws (213% increase): USICH federal data on municipal ordinances 2006-2019.
The Squeeze: Wages vs. Costs
"Housing costs have tripled since 1990, while wages barely moved."
Key Events:
- 2008 Financial Crisis - Housing market collapse accelerated displacement
- 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic - Accelerated cost increases across all sectors
📊 Methodology & Sources
Baseline (1990=100): All metrics indexed to 1990 levels adjusted for CPI inflation.
Median Wages: Bureau of Labor Statistics real median wage data, showing ~10% growth 1990-2025 after inflation adjustment.
Housing Costs: Federal Reserve Housing Price Index + Harvard JCHS rent data, 180% real increase.
Healthcare: Kaiser Family Foundation premium data + CMS National Health Expenditure data, 200% real increase.
Education: National Center for Education Statistics college cost data, 300% real increase.
Geographic Trap: Jobs vs. Housing
📊 Methodology & Sources
Home Prices: Zillow Home Value Index Q3 2025 for each metropolitan area.
Median Incomes: Bureau of Labor Statistics Metropolitan Area Occupational Employment Statistics 2024.
Price-to-Income Ratios: Home price divided by annual median income. Historical sustainable ratio (3x) based on traditional mortgage lending standards.
Rural Data: USDA Economic Research Service rural housing and income data.
Extraction Flow: Where Money Goes
"Rent and fees flow upward — Profits concentrate at the top."
📊 Methodology & Sources
Market Control Distribution: Based on MetLife Investment Management 2022 projection combined with current holdings data from ResiClub Analytics and Parcl Labs.
Blackstone Holdings: Norada Real Estate and ResiClub Analytics reporting on combined portfolio (Home Partners of America + Tricon Residential).
40% Projection: MetLife Investment Management forecast published in CNBC reporting, February 2023.
Jobs Crisis: Good Jobs Disappeared
📊 Methodology & Sources
Manufacturing Jobs: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics, manufacturing sector data 2000-2025 (17.3M to 12.1M).
Service Jobs: BLS data on service-providing industries, includes retail, food service, healthcare support, personal services.
Wage Comparisons: BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics showing median manufacturing wages ($60-80K with benefits) vs. service sector ($30-40K, often without benefits).
Gig Economy: Pew Research Center and McKinsey studies on independent/gig work prevalence 2024.
What Doesn't Work: Individual Solutions
📊 Methodology & Sources
Effectiveness Rates: Percentage of people using each strategy who achieve stable housing within 2 years, based on HUD and academic longitudinal studies.
"Work Harder" (8%): University of Chicago study showing 8% of unhoused individuals work full-time.
"More Education" (12%): Federal Reserve student debt data ($1.7T total); Georgetown University study on underemployment among college graduates (43%).
"Move Away" (5%): USDA ERS data showing higher unemployment in affordable rural areas.
"Save More" (10%): Federal Reserve Survey showing 63% can't cover $500 emergency.
What Could Work: Systemic Solutions
📊 Methodology & Sources
Housing as % of Income: OECD Housing Affordability data 2023-2024, measuring median household spending on housing (rent/mortgage + utilities) as percentage of median disposable income.
Vienna Model: City of Vienna housing authority data showing 60% of residents in gemeindebau (public housing) or limited-profit housing cooperatives.
Union Wage Premium: Bureau of Labor Statistics showing 10-20% wage premium plus 50-60% more likely to have employer health insurance.
The Real Villain: Political Capture
"Policy capture lets corporate landlords write the rules."
📊 Methodology & Sources
Lobbying Data: OpenSecrets.org federal lobbying disclosure database, 2024 annual totals by industry sector.
Market Concentration: American Medical Association annual competition study showing UnitedHealth, Elevance, and CVS/Aetna control 80%+ of many state markets.
Political Capture Evidence: Princeton University Gilens & Page 2014 study showing policy outcomes correlate with economic elite preferences, not median voter preferences.